The Opportunity
Retinal conditions, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), diabetic macular edema (DME), and retinal vein occlusion (RVO), are among the leading causes of vision impairment and vision loss in the US. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) therapies have transformed clinical outcomes and delayed disease progression, but access remains unequal. Black and Hispanic populations face higher disease burden yet have unmet need, with lower rates of screening leading to delayed diagnosis and often greater severity of disease at presentation.
For a biotechnology company navigating this landscape within the US, the core challenge wasn’t scientific; it was geographic and demographic. Which markets are underserved? Which populations are not represented in clinical trials?
Country-level data couldn’t answer those questions. Custom US county-level estimates by race and ethnicity could.
Retinal conditions, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), diabetic macular edema (DME), and retinal vein occlusion (RVO), are among the leading causes of vision impairment and vision loss in the US. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) therapies have transformed clinical outcomes and delayed disease progression, but access remains unequal. Black and Hispanic populations face higher disease burden yet have unmet need, with lower rates of screening leading to delayed diagnosis and often greater severity of disease at presentation.
For a biotechnology company navigating this landscape within the US, the core challenge wasn’t scientific; it was geographic and demographic. Which markets are underserved? Which populations are not represented in clinical trials?
Country-level data couldn’t answer those questions. Custom US county-level estimates by race and ethnicity could.
What IHME Client Services Delivered
IHME Client Services conducted a Bayesian meta-regression analysis to generate prevalence estimates for AMD, DR, DME, and RVO stratified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US state/county. The model drew on some of the most robust data sources available, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Medicare Part B fee-for-service claims, IBM MarketScan commercial insurance claims, and peer-reviewed population-based studies.
The results of the analysis were published in JAMA Ophthalmology. You can read the full publication here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/2846524.
IHME Client Services conducted a Bayesian meta-regression analysis to generate prevalence estimates for AMD, DR, DME, and RVO stratified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US state/county. The model drew on some of the most robust data sources available, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Medicare Part B fee-for-service claims, IBM MarketScan commercial insurance claims, and peer-reviewed population-based studies.
The results of the analysis were published in JAMA Ophthalmology. You can read the full publication here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/2846524.
What this evidence makes possible
Early treatment of retinal disease is important. Delayed diagnosis may lead to irreversible vision loss and significantly higher downstream impacts. By making the burden of these conditions visible at the US county level, we can highlight that the largest unmet need isn't in the patients already in the system. It's among those who haven't been reached yet.
The granularity of these estimates equips stakeholders with actionable evidence to:
Early treatment of retinal disease is important. Delayed diagnosis may lead to irreversible vision loss and significantly higher downstream impacts. By making the burden of these conditions visible at the US county level, we can highlight that the largest unmet need isn't in the patients already in the system. It's among those who haven't been reached yet.
The granularity of these estimates equips stakeholders with actionable evidence to:
- Enable commercial optimization: By overlaying high-prevalence areas against the geographic distribution of retinal specialists, organizations can target deployment of field teams, and identify regions where telehealth or screening interventions are needed.
- Guide clinical trial diversity: The profound racial and ethnic disparities in conditions like DME and DR underscore the need to enroll Black and Hispanic patients in clinical trials proportional to the actual disease prevalence.
- Support market forecasting: With the emergence of novel anti-VEGF therapies and biosimilars, these granular estimates provide an overview of the major VEGF-driven blinding diseases, to help forecast market demand and public health resource allocation.
Age-Standardized Prevalence of AMD, DR, DME, and RVO Stratified by US Counties
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