Quantifying tobacco’s toll to drive life-saving policy interventions in Nepal.
Background
Tobacco use causes massive disease burden in Nepal, with roughly 20% of all annual deaths attributable to tobacco-related causes. Yet tobacco control remained a low-salience policy issue: Nepal's tax rate lagged behind regional neighbors and WHO benchmarks, and limited local expertise to make the case for change. In response, an international policy consulting firm began working with local partners to advocate for public health measures. The firm wanted robust, localized data to inform policy development and highlight the scale of the tobacco epidemic to government stakeholders, and so it turned to IHME Client Services.
Tobacco use causes massive disease burden in Nepal, with roughly 20% of all annual deaths attributable to tobacco-related causes. Yet tobacco control remained a low-salience policy issue: Nepal's tax rate lagged behind regional neighbors and WHO benchmarks, and limited local expertise to make the case for change. In response, an international policy consulting firm began working with local partners to advocate for public health measures. The firm wanted robust, localized data to inform policy development and highlight the scale of the tobacco epidemic to government stakeholders, and so it turned to IHME Client Services.
The Challenge
Advocacy groups often lack the specific, forward-looking data needed to show policymakers both the current toll of smoking and the future lives at stake. The client needed to understand the long-term projections of smoking-related deaths between 2020 and 2050. A key challenge was distinguishing between "avertable" deaths, those that could be saved by immediate policy intervention, and "unavertable" deaths among former smokers who already carry residual health risks from past exposure.
Advocacy groups often lack the specific, forward-looking data needed to show policymakers both the current toll of smoking and the future lives at stake. The client needed to understand the long-term projections of smoking-related deaths between 2020 and 2050. A key challenge was distinguishing between "avertable" deaths, those that could be saved by immediate policy intervention, and "unavertable" deaths among former smokers who already carry residual health risks from past exposure.
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Our Response
IHME Client Services delivered an analysis with:
The Outcome The data served as a critical tool for local policy makers and was used to advocate for a successful 25% increase in cigarette excise taxes – the largest increase in tobacco taxation for more than a decade. The final dataset allowed the client to quantify that while some deaths are unavoidable due to past smoking habits, thousands of lives can be saved through aggressive tobacco control. This evidence-based approach can be replicated to other avertable risk factors across the world and be used to inform policy and advocacy efforts. |
Deaths in Nepal under different smoking exposure scenarios (1990-2050)
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